Finding Value in Sports Betting Markets

You need to track your overall profit over time, something that is really easy with bet tracking software. Even if you have the best betting system known to man, if you don’t track your bets, you can’t know for sure how well it’s working and optimize it as an investment. Note that soft bookmakers price markets nowhere near as efficiently as sharp ones, which creates opportunities for value hunters. You’ll maximize returns by timing your bets right and comparing odds across different bookmakers when real value shows up. These principles explain why all but one of these regular punters2-5% make steady profits.

You really can overcomplicate this stuff, and the truth of the matter is that, if you find prices are ‘wrong’ according to your analysis, go for it. Instead I just look at the difference between the TP and the IP offered by the odds. Now we’ve covered odds, the other important element to understand about value betting is probabilities. Evens is rarely shown in number format but it’s represented by 1/1, so you win whatever you stake. A fractional odd is two numbers separated by a slash (/). On one side is your stake, and on the other is the return you’d get if that stake won the bet at that price.

Exchange odds are set by bettors, and change as a result of supply and demand. The imagined fair odds are an estimate of what these might be. To factor in a margin, the bookmaker lowers these odds to set their actual odds. For this game, they might have odds of 8 for Serbia, 4.5 for the draw, and 1.44 for England. These correspond to fair odds of 9.52 for a Serbia win, 4.65 for a draw, and 1.47 for an England win.

• Most of the value betting software providers advise a staking using the kelly criterion.
• Which saves valuable time and means odds are less likely to change before you can bet them.
• Many punters think they just need insider tips from top experts to make value bets work.
• Different types of soccer bets offer various ways to wager on the outcome of a match, from predicting the outright winner to betting on the total number of goals scored.

thoughts on “Value Betting Guide 2025 – How To Win At Sports Betting”

However I soon learned to understand it, and a little while later I actually started to prefer it. You’ll notice that 52.38% multiplied by 2 equals 104.76%—which is over 100%. This extra 4.76% is from the vig that the bookmakers charge. Track conditions are a big deal as they mean 71% of Jump races ran on soft ground or softer in early 2024, up from 43% previously.

This will be explored later in the each way betting section. Although this won’t lock in a profit, the bet will have long-term value. The great news is that value betting allows you to continue to get value out of gubbed accounts. The odds can then be set accordingly, making sure to reduce the odds a bit to factor in that all-important margin. £10 of this is just you getting your stake back, so the profit is £10.

Finding Value Opportunities

Ultimately, you want the combination of the highest probable outcome at the lowest possible price. Weather can be a major factor in the sports betting market. Football games played in rain, cold, excessive heat, or snow will factor into bet prices. Successful tennis betting requires a marathon mindset – aim for steady 2-3% monthly returns rather than chasing unrealistic profits. Your edge compounds over time through disciplined betting and proper bankroll growth. Set measurable monthly and quarterly goals while maintaining detailed records of your betting performance.

They are also often the first bookmakers to create a particular betting market. A bookmaker offering fair odds would have no edge and would pay out as much in winnings as they took in losing bets over time. The task is to come to what we refer to as ‘the uncomfortable compromise’. You’re not composing the odds you would like to see the bookmakers post, you are composing odds that you would not feel comfortable taking yourself. We can’t emphasise how helpful this task can be to an aspiring punter just starting out. There can be weeks where you can’t be bothered doing it.

Some of their most used tools are calculators such as the accumulator calculator and the matched betting calculator. In typical OddsMonkey fashion, we have an easy formula that bettors can use to find out the expected value of the bet and how likely it is to happen. For example, bettors can divide the value of 1 by the decimal odds to find out how likely the bookmaker believes the selection is. This site also looks at the odds of betting exchanges and sharp bookmakers to highlight value bets at soft bookmakers.

The first tip would be to stick to popular sports that have a lot of turnover. So you can see from the above that this is a strategy that really works. Betfair Exchange showed a back price of 3.8 and a lay price of 3.85. This isn’t just a gamblers fallacy, there is a lot of data to back up this strategy. However, perhaps Horse 1 tends to finish relatively strongly, even if he doesn’t win, and usually finishes in the top 3 places. The bookmaker is paying 3 places at 1/5 odds in each race.

On the whole, your success in high-volume tennis betting hinges on maintaining discipline and implementing data-driven strategies consistently. You’ll find the most value when you combine statistical analysis with your understanding of player matchups, court conditions, and current form. By diversifying your betting portfolio and staying within your predetermined bankroll limits, you can maximize your potential returns while minimizing risks.

Get daily free picks on The Sports Geek picks page that you can cross-reference with your own sports handicapping strategies. In this scenario, you now have a positive expected value of 5% on this wager. Even though the true odds on the coin flip remained the same in all three examples, the expected value on the bet changed drastically based on the betting price you received. If the odds on offer were instead +120 (bet $100 to win $120) on roobet heads, this would be a value bet. That’s because you’re betting on odds that are higher than the actual odds of the coin landing on heads.